Kristof: Victory is ours!
Here’s an interesting angle on the Mr. Bush’s plans for war with Iraq: Declare victory!
MoveOn.org sends me e-mail updates every few days about what can be done to keep the pressure on the Bush administration to simply let the inspections work. Today’s message made an interesting point: The inspections have already had the effect that war would have, meaning simply that it is impossible for Hussein to develop weapons in full view of the inspectors. And he can hardly afford to attack the U.S. just now, either.
MoveOn offers this excerpt from a New York Times article by Nicholas Kristof:
“As the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace put it in a new
report on Iraq, the U.S. goal of preventing any attack by Iraq has
already been achieved.
‘Saddam Hussein is effectively incarcerated and under watch by a force that could respond immediately and devastatingly to any aggression,’ the report noted. ‘Inside Iraq, the inspection teams preclude any significant advance in [weapons of mass destruction] capabilities. The status quo is safe for the American people.’
MoveOn also points out that General Norman Schwarzkopf “hasn’t seen enough evidence” to convince him that war is the right answer. Coming from the guy who won the first war with Iraq, that should be something the administration should take into consideration. Think it will?
It’s a shame Colin Powell has seemingly reversed his position and started supporting the war. He seemed ever so much more sensible when his views were more like Schwarzkopf’s.
Of course, it would be political suicide for Bush to back away from war now. So I guess we’ll have one anyway, so as not to unfairly damage his re-election prospects. Or should that be his re-steal-the-election prospects?
There is something about the whole Iraq, U.N., and U.S. thing that brings out the Republican in me. For me it is all very simple. Security Resolution 1441 says:\r
\r
Acting under Chapter VII of the Charter of the United Nations...\r
\r
Chapter VII includes military intervention; whereas, Chapter VI is just a slap on the wrist.\r
\r
...to afford Iraq, by this\r
resolution, a final opportunity to comply with its disarmament obligations under\r
relevant resolutions of the Council...\r
\r
\r
Decides that false statements or omissions in the declarations submitted\r
by Iraq pursuant to this resolution and failure by Iraq at any time to comply with,\r
and cooperate fully in the implementation of, this resolution shall constitute a\r
further material breach of Iraq?s obligations ...\r
\r
11. Directs the Executive Chairman of UNMOVIC and the Director-General\r
of the IAEA to report immediately to the Council any interference by Iraq with\r
inspection activities, as well as any failure by Iraq to comply with its disarmament\r
obligations, including its obligations regarding inspections under this resolution;\r
\r
12. Decides to convene immediately upon receipt of a report in accordance\r
with paragraphs 4 or 11 above, in order to consider the situation and the need for\r
full compliance with all of the relevant Council resolutions in order to secure\r
international peace and security;\r
\r
13. Recalls, in that context, that the Council has repeatedly warned Iraq that\r
it will face serious consequences as a result of its continued violations of its\r
obligations;\r
\r
Based on the U.N. resolution, Iraq doesn’t have a leg to stand on.\r
\r
Putting my feelings aside and looking at the legality of it all, Bush has the legal high ground; thus, he gets to spew rhetoric and make demands. If the Resolution mentioned something about public opinion or Bush’s popularity, then it would be a whole new ball of wax.
Sure, the Bush team has been pushing really hard for the legal freedom to attack Iraq for quite a long time now, but...\r
\r
The way I see it, everything boils down to a matter of consequences.\r
\r
What are the consequences of attacking Iraq right away? I can think of many.\r
\r
Alienating the world\r
\r
France, Germany, Russia, and China are not yet convinced that war is what is needed to get rid of Hussein. To simply dismiss the will of these countries as somehow not relevant is, in my opinion, a very bad idea. After all, three of them are veto-holding members of the Security Council.\r
\r
It is also worth pointing out sizeable majorities in most European countries (even Britain and Spain, two countries whose leaders support Bush) oppose this war. \r
\r
Increasing the risk of nuclear proliferation\r
\r
As North Korea has demonstrated, Bush’s notions of pre-emptive strikes only work against weak countries like Iraq. North Korea, which we can safely assume already has a nuke or two, is in a much better position to defend itself than Iraq is. The lesson that other non-nuclear countries can take from this is clear: Better develop nukes--and fast!--before the Bush administration looks this way. Clearly this is bad for the Non-Proliferation Treaty.\r
\r
Giving terrorists yet another recruiting tool\r
\r
There’s no way to have a war without killing people. Terrorists will no doubt be able to capitalize on the killing of Iraqi soldiers (or even Iraqi civilians, because there will almost certainly be civilian casualties) and benefit from the potential new recruits the war will no doubt create.\r
\r
These are a few things I can think of, just off the top of my head. Now, what are the consequences of not going to war right away?\r
\r
I can’t really think of any. Hussein is contained and can’t possibly do anything right now. The rest of the world could be persuaded of the need for this war, given evidence and time to examine the facts. And, even if the inspectors spend a year combing through Iraq and find nothing, Bush will still be able to wage war on Iraq then. Nothing will change that simple fact. \r
\r
Don’t get me wrong, I’m not saying that war itself is out of the question, but simply that war right now entails much graver consequences than I think the U.S. is prepared to accept. These unintended consequences could come back to haunt the Bush administration--and the U.S.--for many years to come.
Post a comment
Commenting is not available in this weblog entry.